Retail sales rise in Great Britain after Iran war prompted ‘panic at the pumps’

Motorists stocking up on fuel helped to push up retail sales in Great Britain last month as the Iran war prompted “panic at the pumps” amid rapid rises in petrol and diesel prices. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the volume of retail sales rose by 0.7% last month, well above analysts’ forecasts of just 0.1%. That rise was driven by a 6.1% rise in fuel sales volumes amid the biggest jump in fuel prices for more than three years, triggered by the conflict in the Middle East. The value of fuel sales rose by 11.6% amid the jump in petrol and diesel prices, the biggest monthly increase since November 2021. “There was panic at the pumps in March, as escalating prices saw motorists race to fill up their tanks to try to save cash and build reserves in case of shortages,” said Susannah Streeter, the chief investment strategist at Wealth Club. “A surge in purchases on forecourts was the biggest driver behind the uplift in monthly retail sales.” Just before the US-Israel attacks on Iran began at the end of February, the price of oil was hovering at $72.50 a barrel. Since the conflict effectively shut the strait of Hormuz to fossil fuel shipping, that price has soared to highs of $119.50 a barrel in early March and by Friday it was hovering around $105 a barrel. However, the RAC said this month’s recent run of 10 sub-$100 days in response to the 7 April ceasefire had not been passed on to consumers at the pump. “Pump prices aren’t falling at the rate that our analysis of wholesale data indicates they should,” said Simon Williams, the motoring body’s head of policy. Williams said average UK prices for petrol have dropped by just 1p a litre and diesel by 2p since their 15 April peak of £1.58 and £1.91 a litre respectively. Excluding the impact of fuel buying, total retail sales rose in Great Britain by 0.2% month on month in March, bouncing back from a 0.6% fall in February (revised down from a previous estimate of a 0.4% decline). The ONS said that sunnier weather in March helped retailers, in particular clothing stores. Textile, clothing and footwear stores reported a 1.2% month-on-month sales increase, while department stores recorded a 1.1% sales rise. The only retail sector to record a month-on-month decline in sales was supermarkets and food stores, which reported a 0.8% fall in the volume of sales. Despite last month’s sales boost, the ongoing impact of the Iran war on the economy is taking its toll on consumer confidence. On Thursday, the data provider GfK’s consumer confidence barometer fell by four points to -25 in April, the biggest drop in a year. That is the lowest level since 2023, indicating that the disruption and high energy prices caused by the Iran war is alarming consumers. The closely watched S&P Global purchasing managers’ index showed that between March and April UK service sector companies were hit with the biggest jump in costs since 1996. Separately, earlier this week the ONS said that more than a quarter of firms in its weekly survey of business conditions expected the price of goods or services they sell to increase next month, the highest since January 2023. “Looking ahead to the rest of 2026, there are already signs that consumer confidence is taking a hit,” said Jacqueline Windsor, the head of retail at PwC UK. “If consumers are forced to spend more on grocery, petrol and utility bills, they will inevitably be forced to rein back their discretionary spending. “So, for most retailers, the first few months of this year are likely to be remembered as the calm before the storm.” On Thursday, the ONS published figures showing that the amount collected in fuel duty in March was the lowest for any month since July 2023, suggesting that people cut down on petrol and diesel usage to save money. The reason for the apparent discrepancy between falling fuel duty amid rising sales volumes and value is because the retail sales figures are derived from drivers’ purchases from forecourts. However, fuel duty is paid to HMRC when fuel leaves the refineries. The ONS said this suggests that, while drivers are filling up more than usual, and paying a higher price, fuel retailers had lower forecourt stocks than usual last month.